Si c'est une Mercedes oui !

Oui, mais les chiffres sur l'immobilier qui sont tombés aujourd'hui sont un peu décevants quand même. J'm'attendais à du saignant.
Permis de construire en baisse de 2% à peu près
et nombre de mises en chantier en hausse de 9%.
beurk

From the Fed Chairman, Red Flags and Brown Socks

By Dana Milbank
Thursday, March 1, 2007; Page A02

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke could not have sounded the alarm any clearer if he had carried a bullhorn and a gong. "This expansion of debt would spark a fiscal crisis. . . . The U.S. economy could be seriously weakened. . . . This is sort of like a snowball rolling down the hill. . . . This can really get out of control."

Before Bernanke began his testimony to the House Budget Committee yesterday, the Dow Jones Industrials stood at 12,200. In the half-hour it took him to issue those dire warnings, the index climbed 150 points.From the Fed Chairman, Red Flags and Brown Socks

Investors, of course, weren't reacting to Bernanke's wailing and gnashing of teeth about a looming fiscal crisis; the projected collapse of Medicare and Social Security is still a few years away. After Tuesday's worldwide stock sell-off, the markets -- and the lawmakers -- wanted Bernanke's short-term forecasts for the economy, which were mostly sunny.

Chairman John Spratt (D-S.C.) fretted about the "severe disruption in the stock markets." The ranking Republican, Paul Ryan (Wis.), also wanted to hear about the "precipitous drop."

Bernanke, who said nothing about the stock market in his opening testimony, obliged. "There is really no material change in our expectations for the U.S. economy," he assured the lawmakers. "We are looking for moderate growth in the U.S. economy going forward."

The hearing had been billed as a discussion about "Fiscal Challenges and the Economy in the Long Term." But then came Tuesday's stock swoon -- caused in part by Bernanke's famous predecessor at the Fed, Alan Greenspan, who said on Monday that he saw signs of recession coming late this year. That forced Bernanke into the role of market soother.

"Do you believe or agree that there is a liquidity problem in the world today?" Ryan asked him.

"No, I don't think so," Bernanke answered.

"Some also have been pointing to a concern about subprime lending," Ryan continued.

"We don't see it as being a broad financial concern."

The wires rushed out bulletins:Investors, of course, weren't reacting to Bernanke's wailing and gnashing of teeth about a looming fiscal crisis; the projected collapse of Medicare and Social Security is still a few years away. After Tuesday's worldwide stock sell-off, the markets -- and the lawmakers -- wanted Bernanke's short-term forecasts for the economy, which were mostly sunny.

Chairman John Spratt (D-S.C.) fretted about the "severe disruption in the stock markets." The ranking Republican, Paul Ryan (Wis.), also wanted to hear about the "precipitous drop."

Bernanke, who said nothing about the stock market in his opening testimony, obliged. "There is really no material change in our expectations for the U.S. economy," he assured the lawmakers. "We are looking for moderate growth in the U.S. economy going forward."

The hearing had been billed as a discussion about "Fiscal Challenges and the Economy in the Long Term." But then came Tuesday's stock swoon -- caused in part by Bernanke's famous predecessor at the Fed, Alan Greenspan, who said on Monday that he saw signs of recession coming late this year. That forced Bernanke into the role of market soother.

"Do you believe or agree that there is a liquidity problem in the world today?" Ryan asked him.

"No, I don't think so," Bernanke answered.

"Some also have been pointing to a concern about subprime lending," Ryan continued.

"We don't see it as being a broad financial concern."

The wires rushed out bulletins:Investors, of course, weren't reacting to Bernanke's wailing and gnashing of teeth about a looming fiscal crisis; the projected collapse of Medicare and Social Security is still a few years away. After Tuesday's worldwide stock sell-off, the markets -- and the lawmakers -- wanted Bernanke's short-term forecasts for the economy, which were mostly sunny.

Chairman John Spratt (D-S.C.) fretted about the "severe disruption in the stock markets." The ranking Republican, Paul Ryan (Wis.), also wanted to hear about the "precipitous drop."

Bernanke, who said nothing about the stock market in his opening testimony, obliged. "There is really no material change in our expectations for the U.S. economy," he assured the lawmakers. "We are looking for moderate growth in the U.S. economy going forward."

The hearing had been billed as a discussion about "Fiscal Challenges and the Economy in the Long Term." But then came Tuesday's stock swoon -- caused in part by Bernanke's famous predecessor at the Fed, Alan Greenspan, who said on Monday that he saw signs of recession coming late this year. That forced Bernanke into the role of market soother.

"Do you believe or agree that there is a liquidity problem in the world today?" Ryan asked him.

"No, I don't think so," Bernanke answered.

"Some also have been pointing to a concern about subprime lending," Ryan continued.

"We don't see it as being a broad financial concern."

The requisite calming accomplished, Bernanke relaxed, stretching out his legs under the witness table.

Showmanship is not something that comes naturally to the white-bearded academic. He testified yesterday with a large band-aid on the tip of his index finger, and his suit jacket was bunched up around his neck like a life vest, causing one sleeve to hike up on his forearm. Though his suit was gray and his shoes were black, his socks were brown (President Bush once ridiculed him for wearing tan hosiery).

Bernanke had come not to prop up markets but to scold lawmakers about the need to do head off the coming fiscal crisis. Lawmakers, however, reacted like addicts, either denying their problem or promising to give up the spending habit another day.

"I beg to disagree," said Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio). While Bernanke may believe "we've got too many people getting older," Kaptur informed him that "what's happening is that capital investors have figured out how to make egregious profit by outsourcing."

Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Tex.), likewise, quarreled with the view that "all we need to be concerned about is that Grandma's Social Security check is too big."

Rep. Rodney Alexander (R-La.) identified the problem: Medicare's electric wheelchairs. "Going back a long way, I think 1965," he said, "I could have bought absolutely the best car on the lot for $4,000. And today we have a system that's spending that much or more for medical devices, motorized wheelchairs or whatever."

Other lawmakers struggled to wrap their arms around the crisis Bernanke was describing. "We're just, kind of, whistling past the graveyard?" asked Rep. Marion Berry (D-Ark).

"Yes, sir," said the chairman.

"And hoping that the tooth fairy comes and bails us out of this deal?"

"I don't know about the metaphors there, Mr. Congressman," Bernanke replied.

Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-Tex.) had a different metaphor to run by the chairman. He asked if "we are debating how to mop up six inches of water in the stateroom of the captain of the Titanic when we should be focused upon the gaping hole in the hull of the ship."

"The heart of the problem are the entitlement programs," Bernanke affirmed.

Rep. Darlene Hooley (D-Ore.) had an idea. "If you were in a class of fifthgraders, how would you explain to them the consequences of our national debt and deficit?" she asked.

"I would say that our economy needs machines and new factories and new buildings and so on in order for us to have a strong and growing economy," he answered patiently. "If the government doesn't cover all its expenses, it has to take out the money that would otherwise be used to build those."

Bernanke reflected. "That probably wouldn't work for a fifth-grader," he said. Nor, apparently, for members of Congress.

et devoir réinjecter un max de monnaie...

...L'autre inquiétude tient à l'ambiance d'insouciance financière qui règne dans le royaume, avec la bénédiction des banques. Les Britanniques, rois de l'endettement privé, sont des accros du crédit et des drogués de la dépense.

La dette des ménages s'élève ainsi à 1 900 milliards d'euros, le crédit à la consommation s'ajoutant aux emprunts immobiliers. Plus de 100 000 Britanniques se sont déclarés en situation de faillite personnelle en 2006, soit une hausse de 60 %. Tout cela devrait, en bonne logique, inciter le pays à une plus grande rigueur en matière de crédit immobilier....